ZIP Code Valuation Modeling

The ZIP Code Valuation Modeling project developed predictive models of ZIP code–level non-prior service active-duty accessions for each of the four active-duty DoD Services: Army, Navy, Air Force, and the Marines.

Objective

The goal of the ZIP Code Valuation project was to identify and test models predicting accessions by ZIP code and validate these models on separate accession data. This data helps the Military optimize recruiting efforts and understand the geographical areas most likely to produce enlistment.

Approach

Fors Marsh Group coordinated with each Service to execute a literature review, aggregate data, develop a database, and create and validate a model to predict the total accessions and target market accessions at the ZIP code level. Fors Marsh Group is responsible for all sampling, data manipulation, recoding, and computations, as well as conducting the necessary exploratory data analysis. Fors Marsh Group developed a comprehensive statistical model using zero-inflated Poisson regression.

Outcome

This research describes the relationships that economic, educational, demographic, recruitment, and other factors have on ZIP code–level accessions and provides estimates of future accessions based on these variables. The results inform the Services’ decisions regarding recruitment goals, recruiter staffing, and new station placement, and provide information that can be used for targeted market research interventions.